Author Archives: Greg Spira

Stop Chasing Forecast Accuracy: Build Trust in Your Demand Decisions

This time of year I routinely hear the same refrain in executive suites: “We need a better forecast before we lock the plan.” It’s budget season, retailers are resetting shelves post–back-to-school, and teams are gearing up for the holiday quarter. The knee-jerk response is to “scrub the details” or “pressure test” the demand plan. ButContinue reading “Stop Chasing Forecast Accuracy: Build Trust in Your Demand Decisions”

Q4 Playbook: How to Build Trust in Demand Management When the Stakes Are Highest

As we head into October, demand planners and IBP leaders are under real pressure. Holiday promotions are being finalized, supply plans are locking, and next year’s budget assumptions are on the table. Every meeting seems to ask the same question in a different way: can we trust the plan? Trust isn’t a slogan; it’s theContinue reading “Q4 Playbook: How to Build Trust in Demand Management When the Stakes Are Highest”

Demand Planning – Is there a return on investment?

I’m often posed questions about the value and impact of demand planning to an organization.  Sometimes it comes from trying to measure the effectiveness of a Demand Planning team. For example, “What should my demand plan accuracy target be?  What is best-in-class?” Other times, it comes from trying to evaluate or justify additional investment inContinue reading “Demand Planning – Is there a return on investment?”

One simple way to measure the effectiveness of your IBP / S&OP process

I was recently chatting with a colleague who is working on the integration of an acquisition.  He showed me a diagram of the acquired company’s monthly planning process to get my feedback.  It was a little unorthodox, to put it politely.  But that discussion was just one of several discussions on the topic of evaluatingContinue reading “One simple way to measure the effectiveness of your IBP / S&OP process”

Forecast Value Add – What is it?

Unlike forecast accuracy measures which have been used widely in practice for decades, Forecast Value Add (FVA) is not as common, but is a very helpful tool for guiding where and how we spend our time in the demand planning process. Forecast Value Add is a metric that evaluates the performance of various steps inContinue reading “Forecast Value Add – What is it?”

Why should a CEO care about Demand Plan Bias?

There are many ways to measure the characteristics of a Demand Plan. Its accuracy can be calculated in aggregate, in detail and mix. Accuracy measures can be computed at a variety of different offsets, and at various levels of detail. Demand Plan accuracy can also be compared against the accuracy of a purely statistical forecastContinue reading “Why should a CEO care about Demand Plan Bias?”

Planning for New Products

Planning demand for existing products already being sold is tough enough, where consumer and market behaviors are understood. Planning demand for new products is even more challenging given added complexities, such as: Timing the launch of new products Predicting market acceptance of those products Planning the phase out of existing products that the new productsContinue reading “Planning for New Products”

Facilitating the Demand Review

It’s a commonly shared best-practice that demand planning is a multiple-input process, through which different commercial perspectives should be considered to develop the best demand plan for the business. Having balanced discussions is not only important to ensure that the best decisions are being made. In my experience balanced discussions gives everyone a voice inContinue reading “Facilitating the Demand Review”